黃河流域徑流變化

The driving factors of runoff changes can be divided into precipitation factor and non-precipitation factor, and they can also be divided into natural factor and human activity factor. In this paper, the ways and methods of these driving factors impacting on runoff changes are analyzed at first, and then according to the relationship between precipitation and runoff, the analytical method about impacts of precipitation and non-precipitation factors on basin's natural runoff is derived. The amount and contribution rates of the two factors impacting on natural runoff between every two adjacent decades during 1956-1998 are calculated in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). The results show that the amount and contribution rate of the two factors impacting on natural runoff are different in different periods and regions. For the YRB, the non-precipitation impact is preponderant for natural runoff reduction after the 1970s. Finally, by choosing main factors impacting on the natural runoff, one error back-propagation (BP) artificial neural network (ANN) model has been set up, and the impact of human activities on natural runoff reduction in the YRB is simulated. The result shows that the human background of 1956-1979.

作 者： 李春暉 楊志峰 LI Chunhui YANG Zhifeng   作者單位： 李春暉,LI Chunhui(College of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences,Ministry of Education,Beijing 100875,China)

楊志峰,YANG Zhifeng(College of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences,Ministry of Education,Beijing 100875,China; College of Environment,Beijing Normal University,State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation,Beijing 100875,China) 

刊 名： 地理學(xué)報(bào)（英文版）  ISTIC SCI 英文刊名： JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES  年，卷(期)： 2004 14(4)  分類(lèi)號(hào)： P9  關(guān)鍵詞： natural runoff   precipitation   non-precipitation   natural factor   human activities   the Yellow River Basin (YRB)  

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