P(gun)ڔ(sh)W(xu)Y(ji)һ
(jng)^@ΕrgČW(xu)(x)˽˸P(gun)@TW(xu)Ƶ֪RfҊR˺ܶܶ࣬һ(sh)W(xu)ϵČW(xu)һֱһɆ(sh)W(xu)đ(yng)@@ҿ˺ܶҲW(xu)˺ܶ࣬P(gun)ڸW(xu)I(lng)ٲ˔(sh)W(xu)ýģ˼Q(sh)H}
(sh)W(xu)ģoҺܶĸ|̽o҂IJһЩ(sh)W(xu)֪R䌍(sh)ǾCB(yng)呟cB(yng)҂?ni)Ƕȿ]}ʹ҂߉õܺõ呟ߡ߀˽˶N(sh)W(xu)ܛԼ\(yn)Ô(sh)W(xu)ܛģM(jn)
(sh)W(xu)ģҪnjF(xin)(sh)ϢԷgw{Įa(chn)ͨ^(sh)W(xu)ģ͵ļO(sh)⡢(yn)Cõ(sh)W(xu)ϵĽٽ(jng)^gصF(xin)(sh)oQߵĽY(ji)䌍(sh)(sh)W(xu)ģ҂fİ҂ճУ(jng)õP(gun)ģĸ҂ƽrh(yun)T]һ³е·_(d)ȿֽ(jng)(j)ĿһЩSL(jng)˫@ø߄һa(chn)N۵(yu)@Щ}ͽģܴ(lin)ϵڌW(xu)(x)(sh)W(xu)ģӖ(xn)ǰ҂挦@Щ}rQķһN(x)TԵ˼Sʽֻ֪ԓ@sʲô@F(xin)҂@Nf˼ʽ(jng)ڱ(sh)W(xu)ģӖ(xn)B(yng)ĶǶӴηı|(zh)υ^(q)ֆ}·fS˼ʽ@NS(yu)㷽һw˼ʽһD(zhun)|(zh)HԺČW(xu)(x)^m(x)l(f)]ãҲijL·ӡWһ
(sh)W(xu)ģҪQĆ}QdžһW(xu)Ɔ}Ҫ҂(sh)Ĕ(sh)W(xu)֪R߀Ҫ҂ͣȥW(xu)(x)ͲY҂ҪW(xu)(x)S(sh)W(xu)֧}߀Ҫ˽Sa(chn)(jng)(j)ͶYU(xin)I(y)ȷ֪R@Щ֪RQκΌI(y)жCõܘO،S҂ă(ni)҂е֪RҪҲI(lng)ˡW(xu)(x)Dzl(f)F(xin)^̡@ԒBڣ@Щ֪R،҂ČW(xu)(x)(jin)(sh)ĻA(ch)ĬF(xin)҂ČW(xu)(x)҂ֱÔ(sh)W(xu)ģِՓāfԭԞ@һܺεŰl(f)X鲢]еĺ?yn)ҪQ}{҂F(xin)е֪RԼҪÈD^;W(wng)j(lu)醸NP(gun)YԱM@ñ^ȫ֪RϢ@^УԼ۽_֪RĔU(ku)չoɴк̎W(xu)ƵĽBԼ߽Q(f)s}䏈fģ^ھ҂ĝܣʹ҂ԼµJ(rn)ReԌW(xu)õ˘Oߣ˼ĽhҲŰl(f)ǻ۵ĻĶ^m(x)W(xu)(x)(sh)W(xu)ԺͷeOٴ(sh)W(xu)ģҲB(yng)҂ĸҲҪһ۾ץס}ı|(zh)ڡ҂ֻȌ(sh)H}M(jn)иw{ͬrSr±MԸNҪooץס}ı|(zh)ʹ}Mܺλ@ӲܽQ}䌍(sh)҂Փ֮ǰ]кܶ@һϵ(sh)]ԒM(fi)ĕrg;҂]һЩزDZ|(zh)}ĕrҾ͌@Щ(sh)˼O(sh)Լģ͵ƏVrſ]@ʹģӺ(sh)W(xu)ģ߀(qing)҂ijԼ(sh)H}M(jn)СgM(jn)гҪ҂ϤĔ(sh)W(xu)Z(sh)W(xu)̖͔(sh)W(xu)ʽ
(zhn)_ı_(d)
һwČ(sh)Bģľw(yng)ã
Ⱦ}о
һpģͼO(sh)
1.ڼڃ(ni)ĵ^(q)]˿ڵijӵȷNȺء?c)˿ڔ?sh)N(t)׃˿ʼKһ(sh)NȺ֞Ⱦ(Susceptibles)䔵(sh)ӛs(t)ʾtrδȾпܱԓȾ˔(sh)ռ?c)˔?sh)ıȾ(Infectives)䔵(sh)ӛi(t)ʾtrѱȾɞ鲡˶ҾЂȾ˔(sh)ռ?c)˔?sh)ı֏(f)(Recovered)䔵(sh)ӛr(t)ʾtrяȾƳ˔(sh)@˼ȷѸȾҲǸȾߣЂȾҲٴαȾ˳ԓȾϵy(tng)ռ?c)˔?sh)ı
2.˵ս|ʣÿÿЧ|ƽ˔(sh)鳣(sh)ˣʣÿ챻IJռ˔(sh)ı鳣(sh)@ȻƽȾڞ1Ⱦڽ|(sh)=ˣԓģ͵ȱǽY(ji)c(sh)Hһ̶Ȳ@?yn)ģмO(sh)Ч|ʂȾDz׃
pģ͘(gu)
O(sh)lȾߏĻƳ^̿Dʾ£
ڼO(sh)1
s(t) + i(t) + r(t) = 1
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didtsii
dssi
dt
drdti
s(t) i(t)Oyڴ҂(sh)ֵӋ(j)A(y)Ӌ(j)s(t) i(t)һ׃Ҏ(gu)
p(sh)ֵӋ(j)
ڷ̣3O(sh)=1=0.3i0= 0.02s0=0.98MATLABܛ̣ function y=ill(t,x)
a=1;b=0.3;
y=[a*x(1)*x(2)-b*x(1);-a*x(1)*x(2)];
ts=0:50;
x0=[0.20,0.98];
[t,x]=ode45(ill,ts,x0);
ĩp܉
҂ڔ(sh)ֵӋ(j)͈D^ĻA(ch)ϣ܉ӑՓit,st|(zh)
D = si| s0i0 s + i 1
ڷ̣3ȥdtעҵĶxɵ
di11i|ss0i05 dss
ԣdiis111ds di1ds6 i0s0ss
÷e(5)Ľ飺i(s0i0)s1
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s(t)i(t)׃څ
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2.KδȾĽߵı ,(7)ʽi=0õ, Ƿ
s0i0s1
lns0 s0
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s=1/ҕr,i(t)_(d)ֵ
1ims0i01lns0)
Ȼs<1/ҕrdi11o i(t)pСڅ,s(t)t{(dio)pСs,dss
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4.s0 1/,tdi110i(t){(dio)pС,s(t){(dio)pСs,D3dss
P2(s0,i0)l(f)܉
Կ,H(dng)˱i(t)һLĕrڲJ(rn)Ⱦ,ô1/һֵ,(dng)s0>1/(>1/s0)rȾ͕.pСȾڽ|(sh),ֵ1/ʹs01/( 1/s0),ȾͲ(߱ijʼֵs0һ,ͨ
J(rn)s0ӽ1)
,ʹs0>1/,(19),(20)ʽԿ, ҜpСr, s(ͨ^D), im,Ҳӵij̶.҂עڦ=˦,˂l(wi)ˮƽԽ,ս|ʦԽС;t(y)ˮƽԽ,ʦԽ,ǦԽС,l(wi)ˮƽt(y)ˮƽڿƂȾ.
һ濴, ss1/ǂȾڃ(ni)һ˂ȾĽߵƽ(sh),Q齻Q(sh),京xһ˱s߽Q.Ԯ(dng) s01/s01r .ȻQ(sh)^1,˱i(t)^,Ⱦ
pȺwߺA(y)
(j)SIRģ͵ķ,(dng)s01/rȾ.Ԟֹ,l(wi)t(y)ˮƽ,ʹֵ1/׃,һ;ǽs0 ,@ͨ^A(y)ӷNʹȺwߵk.
Բ˱ijʼֵi0s01r0,ǂȾӵėls01/Ա r011
@fֻҪͨ^Ⱥwʹʼr̵Ƴ߱߱M㣨11ʽͿֹȾ
@NkЧǰlҪֲȫw˿(sh)H@Ǻyġ(j)Ӌ(j)(dng)rӡȵȇ컨ȾĽ|(sh) =5ɣ11ʽҪ80%˽߲(j)l(wi)M(bo)ʹM(fi)Yr0Ҳyߵľֲʹ컨ֱ1977ȫЩȾĦҸy
pģ(yn)C
o(j)ӡIl(f)һЎ
в˶ஔ(dng)ƳȾϵy(tng)P(gun)TӛÿƳߵ˔(sh)
ģ(yn)C
ɷ̣23ԵõdrČ(sh)H(sh)(j)Kermack@M(sh)(j)SIRdtdsdsisisr dtdt
1ʽ߅ͬrdtdsdr߅eֵ s
r1srsde lns|rsrss0sr000s0s
ԣ s(t)s0er(t) (12)
P(gun)ڔ(sh)W(xu)ģY(ji)
ϵ e
W(xu) ̖
r g
J(rn)RW(xu)(x)Y(ji)
(sh)W(xu)ģSM(jn)Ƽİl(f)չڅ(sh)ֻ(yng)I(lng)ԽԽV˂߅Ĕ(sh)W(xu)(ni)ԽԽS(qing){(dio)(sh)W(xu)(yng)üB(yng)(yng)Ô(sh)W(xu)RƄ|(zh)Č(sh)ʩxʮ־(sh)W(xu)ģڔ(sh)W(xu)еĵλᵽµĸ߶ͨ^(sh)W(xu)ģ┵(sh)W(xu)(yng)}ߌW(xu)ľC|(zh)
һ(sh)W(xu)(yng)}c(din)
҂сԴڿ^Č(sh)HЌ(sh)Hx?q)HҪͨ^(sh)W(xu)ģķ}D(zhun)锵(sh)W(xu)ʽʾĶ@ýQһ(sh)W(xu)}(sh)W(xu)(yng)}(sh)W(xu)(yng)}c(din)
һ(sh)W(xu)(yng)}ıЌ(sh)Hx?q)H@Č(sh)Hָa(chn)(sh)H(sh)H(sh)HȬF(xin)(sh)ĸČ(sh)Hcn֪R(lin)ϵԴڌ(sh)Hđ(yng)}cģ?q)W֪RW(wng)j(lu)Rc(din)(lin)ϵđ(yng)}cF(xin)Ƽl(f)չЈ(jng)(j)h(hun)o(h)(sh)εP(gun)đ(yng)}
ڶ(sh)W(xu)(yng)}ҪÔ(sh)W(xu)ģķʹ}(sh)W(xu)}D(zhun)ɔ(sh)W(xu)ʽʾ
(sh)W(xu)(yng)}漰֪Rc(din)njC\(yn)Ô(sh)W(xu)֪RͷQ(sh)H}ęz(yn)njW(xu)ľC漰֪Rc(din)һijһ֪Rc(din)յIJ^P(gun)y}_
ġ(sh)W(xu)(yng)}}]й̶ģʽeһN·fČ(sh)HyM(jn)}ģʽӖ(xn)á}(zhn)g(sh)oQ׃˵Č(sh)H}挍(sh)}CĿ挍(sh)ЧЏV韵İl(f)չg͝
(sh)W(xu)(yng)}νģ
(sh)W(xu)ģǽ┵(sh)W(xu)(yng)}P(gun)Iν(sh)W(xu)ģͿɷׂ֞ӴΣ
һӴΣֱӽģ
(j)}O(sh)lìF(xin)ɵĔ(sh)W(xu)ʽȔ(sh)W(xu)ģ
ڶӴΣֱӽģìF(xin)ɵĔ(sh)W(xu)ģ횸@(sh)W(xu)ģ(yng)}M(jn)зȻ_}Ҫľw(sh)W(xu)ģͻ(sh)W(xu)ģ蔵(sh)W(xu)M(jn)һȻʹìF(xin)Д(sh)W(xu)ģ
ӴΣؽģ(f)sP(gun)ϵM(jn)្ӹԴҪɂ(sh)W(xu)ģͷܽQ}
ČӴΣO(sh)ģҪM(jn)зӹO(sh)Ȼܽ(sh)W(xu)ģоʮ·܇}O(sh)܇ƽ(wn)]ͻl(f)¼Ȳܽģ
(sh)W(xu)ģ͑(yng)߂
Č(sh)H}н(sh)W(xu)ģQ(sh)W(xu)}ĶQ(sh)H}@һ(sh)W(xu)ȫ^̵Ľ̌W(xu)P(gun)Iǽ(sh)W(xu)ģ(sh)W(xu)ģď(qing)ֱP(gun)ϵ(sh)W(xu)(yng)}Ľ}|(zh)ͬrҲwF(xin)һW(xu)ľC
31߷x
xǔ(sh)W(xu)ģǰ(sh)W(xu)(yng)}һ㶼(chung)O(sh)һµıҲᘌ}ʹһЩTg(sh)Zorx1999߿}22}o܈䓎^̔oˡpʡ@һTg(sh)Zo˼rxܷӳC|(zh)@NֱӰ푔(sh)W(xu)ģ|(zh)
32(qing)ZԔD(zhun)gɔ(sh)W(xu)̖ZԵ
(sh)W(xu)(yng)}бʾ(sh)P(gun)ϵDZԷgɔ(sh)W(xu)̖ZԼ(sh)ʽʽ(sh)ȣ@Ngǔ(sh)W(xu)ģĻA(ch)Թ 磺һNa(chn)ƷԭijɱaԪڽ(ni)Ӌ(j)ʹɱƽÿһһ꽵p%(jng)^ijɱ
}нoַgɷ̖Zɱy=a(1-p%)5
33(qing)x(sh)W(xu)ģ͵
x(sh)W(xu)ģǔ(sh)W(xu)ķӳ(sh)W(xu)ģ͵ĽжNxһѵģwF(xin)(sh)W(xu)ď(qing)(sh)W(xu)ģҪ漰̡(sh)ʽ(sh)ͨ(xing)ʽʽ̵Y(ji)Ͻ̌W(xu)(ni)ݣԺ(sh)ģ(sh)H}xĔ(sh)W(xu)ģб
(sh)ģ (sh)H}
һκ(sh) ɱN
κ(sh) (yu)}ʡ}r͡
纯(sh)ָ(sh)(sh)(sh)(sh) (x)ﷱֳ
Ǻ(sh) yW(xu)}
34ӏ(qing)(sh)W(xu)\(yn)
(sh)W(xu)(yng)}һ\(yn)^^(f)sнӋ(j)еıM˼·_ģӋ(j)Ƿȱ͕ǰMԼӏ(qing)(sh)W(xu)\(yn)ʹ(sh)W(xu)ģ_P(gun)Iҕ\(yn)eӋ(j)B(yng)ֻҕ^ҕӋ(j)^̵Dzȡ
(sh)W(xu)ģǔ(sh)W(xu)֪Rc(sh)W(xu)(yng)õĘо͌W(xu)(x)(sh)W(xu)ģW(xu)̽(sh)W(xu)đ(yng)ãa(chn)(sh)W(xu)W(xu)(x)dȤB(yng)W(xu)Ą(chung)R͌(sh)`ӏ(qing)(sh)W(xu)ģ̌W(xu)cW(xu)(x)W(xu)_l(f)h(yun)xF(xin)μӏ(qing)Д(sh)W(xu)ģ̌W(xu)Մc(din)w
һҪҕǰ}Ľ̌W(xu)ʹW(xu)(sh)W(xu)ģ͵Č(sh)Hx
̲ĵÿһ¶һP(gun)Č(sh)H}ֱӸVW(xu)W(xu)˱µĽ̌W(xu)(ni)ݼ@(sh)H}Ô(sh)W(xu)ģ͵õQ@W(xu)͕a(chn)(chung)R(sh)W(xu)ģ͵Ŀ(sh)`RW(xu)Ҫڌ(sh)`ԇһԇ
½̲ġǺ(sh)ǰһKO(sh)c(din)AĵİAοյҪ@Kյτһ(ni)ӾABCDٞGʹ߅ADڰAֱc(din)BCڰAĈA֪Aİ돽LaxP(gun)c(din)OQc(din)ADλʹe
@B(yng)(chung)R(sh)`ĺÕrC(j)Ҫע(do)Č(sh)H}M(jn)г(yng)Ĕ(sh)W(xu)ģͨ^fɷN˼·֪Rl(f)W(xu)֪粻ɴW(xu)ķeOԣʧȥc(din)
@ͨ^ǰ}̌W(xu)W(xu)˔(sh)W(xu)njW(xu)(x)о͑(yng)Ô(sh)W(xu)ģͬrB(yng)W(xu)·Rc(sh)`RҪҕǰ}Ľ̌W(xu)߀ɓ(j)Ј(jng)(j)ĽO(sh)cl(f)չҪW(xu)(sh)`аl(f)F(xin)Ć}a(b)һЩ(sh)(qing)@Ľ̌W(xu)ʹW(xu)ճW(xu)(x)ҕ(sh)W(xu)B(yng)W(xu)(sh)W(xu)ģR
ͨ^Μy}з̽⑪(yng)}Ľ̌W(xu)B(sh)W(xu)ģ˼c˼S^̡
W(xu)(x)ǵĜy}ʹW(xu)ȫλظܔ(sh)W(xu)ģ˼W(xu)J(rn)RF(xin)ڔ(sh)W(xu)ģ얹̔(sh)W(xu)ģ˼S^̡̌W(xu)ЌW(xu)չʾģ^̣
F(xin)(sh)ԭ͆}
(sh)W(xu)ģ
(sh)W(xu)
ԭt
F(xin)(sh)ԭ͆}Ľ
(sh)W(xu)ģ͵Ľ
ӳԭt
ؽ
з̽⑪(yng)}wF(xin)ڔ(sh)W(xu)ģ˼S^Ҫ(j)յϢͱ}׃Σʹ了λڽ˼ҽ}^ҪIJEǓ(j)}ĶʹW(xu)ף(sh)W(xu)ģ^̵c(din)yc(din)Ǔ(j)(sh)H}c(din)ͨ^^졢ȡw{Ȼ˼(lin)F(xin)ɵĔ(sh)W(xu)ģͻ׃Q}(gu)µĔ(sh)W(xu)ģ́Q}Ϣ(f)Ĕ(sh)ģӋ(j)ķģ͛Q߆}ĺ(sh)ģԼʽģ͵
Y(ji)ϸоn}ČW(xu)(x)B(yng)W(xu)(sh)W(xu)ģ͵չ(sh)W(xu)ģʽĶʽc
´VҪÿW(xu)ٰһоn}ǞB(yng)W(xu)Ĕ(sh)W(xu)ģ硰(sh)Сеġڸ}ƽеđ(yng)áͬr߀O(sh)Ӌ(j){(dio)顢ǢՄُN۵Ȇ}O(sh)Ӌ(j)оԆ}
1(j)±oĔ(sh)(j)Y_ԓ˿LҎ(gu)ɣA(y)yԓ2000˿ڔ(sh)
rg() 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Д(sh)(f) 39 50 63 76 92 106 123 132 145
@һ_˿Lģ͵Ć}ʹ}(yng)¼O(sh)
1ԓ(jng)(j)h(hun)(wn)2ԓ˿L(sh)˿ڵ3˿ڔ(sh)Bm(x)ġO(sh)҂J(rn)˿ڔ(sh)Ǖrg(sh)ģ˼·Ǹ(j)oĔ(sh)(j)YLɢc(din)DȻһlֱʹMc@Щɢc(din)ǺԓֱͱJ(rn)Ƶԓ˿LҎ(gu)ɣĶM(jn)һA(y)y
ͨ^}оȏ(f)(x)얹˺(sh)֪RB(yng)ˌW(xu)Ĕ(sh)W(xu)ģ͌(sh)`(chung)Rճ̌W(xu)עӖ(xn)W(xu)Ô(sh)W(xu)ģ́QF(xin)(sh)}B(yng)W(xu)˼С(sh)R^쌍(sh)`ӛסһЩüҊĔ(sh)(j)磺܇܇ٶԼwصÌW(xu)УlMW(xu)وM(jn)Ќ(sh)(x)ӣһY(ji)ͻnðь(sh)H}(yng)Ĕ(sh)W(xu)ģ́Q磺UĽǶcxP(gun)ϵȫͬW(xu)ևɾȦӇʹɵeȣôuKɶZƹǵ
B(yng)W(xu)Ɣ(sh)W(xu)ģ˼
ڔ(sh)W(xu)ģ@һ˼뷽؞СW(xu)(sh)W(xu)W(xu)(x)^֮СW(xu)g(sh)\(yn)}ЌW(xu)(sh)_(d)ʽ܉E̵ȶ(sh)W(xu)ģ͵˼뷽쾚պ\(yn)@NB(yng)W(xu)\(yn)Ô(sh)W(xu)}Q}P(gun)IJ(rn)@ҪB(yng)W(xu)c(din)ܸõƔ(sh)W(xu)ģ˼룺
1⌍(sh)H}
2P(gun)ץסϵy(tng)Ҫc(din)
3}
4gѽ(jng)^һČ(sh)H}Ô(sh)W(xu)Zķ̖_(d)γɔ(sh)W(xu)ģ͵͌(yng)Ô(sh)W(xu)M(jn)ݻӋ(j)õעY(ji)ȻZԱ_(d)
5\(yn)Ô(sh)W(xu)֪R
6ͨ^(sh)Hԙz(yn)
ֻиӏ(qing)ˣ܌һЩ֪R|ͨeһ麆ҪõN
(sh)W(xu)ģSM(jn)Ƽİl(f)չڅ(sh)ֻ(yng)I(lng)ԽԽV˂߅Ĕ(sh)W(xu)(ni)ԽԽS(qing){(dio)(sh)W(xu)(yng)üB(yng)(yng)Ô(sh)W(xu)RƄ|(zh)Č(sh)ʩxʮ־(sh)W(xu)ģڔ(sh)W(xu)еĵλᵽµĸ߶ȣͨ^(sh)W(xu)ģ┵(sh)W(xu)(yng)}ߌW(xu)ľC|(zh)